Ask before measuring.
RESEARCH
Claims are earned,
not announced.
Every claim links to its evidence, its limits, and a reproducible record.
THE METHOD01 02 03
Publish what failed.
Name what the evidence cannot establish.
01 / THE EVIDENCE BASE
One question
at a time.
Each artifact answers a bounded question. Failures remain visible; unlike measurements never become one score.
The Minority Prophet Property
Machine-checked proofs state when repetition cannot change a root-based verdict—and the assumptions that make the result hold.
Read the formal model →Evidence-aligned history
Frozen records keep successes, failures, and unfinished findings visible together.
Inspect the record →Epistemic lift
The same models faced the same 32 worlds with claims alone, provenance, and provenance plus Minority Prophet.
See the measured lift →Capability comparison
Model reasoning, tool use, voting, and a deterministic evidence rule meet the same bounded packet.
Compare the methods →Keep the doubt
Receipts carry evidence roots, coverage, uncertainty, flip budget, and the conditions that would reverse a conclusion.
Explore the ledger →Where inference breaks
The lineage series shows what can be reconstructed—and what disappears when identity and provenance are missing.
Read the lineage series →02 / NEGATIVE EVIDENCE
What failed
stays visible.
Dependence adjustment did not beat market price across 5,729 eligible weather markets.
Text and time alone did not recover reply roots when identity was missing.
A more complex dependence auditor lost to simpler comparators and was rejected.
03 / READING PATHS